After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress. In 1994, which was the first midterm election of Bill Clinton’s presidency, the Republicans gained 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats, capturing control of both Houses of Congress. When consulting history, it is true that the Republicans are likely to pickup seats in 2010, as the minority party usually does in the first midterm of a new president, they will need a historic wave far beyond the norm to achieve their goal. A look at history follows:
Our study considers Abraham Lincoln to be the first Republican President in the modern, two-party era, elected in 1860. Including Lincoln , 23 presidents faced a mid-term election during their first term in office. This analysis includes Lyndon Johnson (1966), Harry Truman (1946), Theodore Roosevelt (1906) and Chester Arthur (1882), who succeeded deceased Presidents, during their first terms.
Only two of the 23 Presidents, George W. Bush in 2002 and Franklin Roosevelt in 1934, served a first term, in which their party gaining seats in the first mid-term election.
The average mid-term loss for the president’s party in this 146 year period was 28 seats. Neither party fared better than the other, as the average Democratic loss was 28 seats, and the Republican loss averaged 29 seats.
Republican gains in 2002, which was the first midterm of George W. Bush’s presidency, was aided by positive redistricting, especially in Florida , Michigan , Ohio and Pennsylvania , and the backdrop of the 9-11 tragedy.
In the more recent political era, 1954-2008, the average mid-term election loss sustained in a president’s first term was 27 seats. Seven of the eight first-term presidents presided over a loss of seats (Bush 43 being the exception). Four Democratic Presidents, all of whom presided over losses, sustained an average loss of 30 seats; while the four Republican Presidents, sustained an average loss of 11 seats.
Accordingly, expectations of Democratic gains in 2010 are illusory, and even modest gains, against an average historical loss of 28 seats, would be an enormous achievement.
Moreover, the 2010 mid-term will be the first historical test of a first-term president’s party facing the voters, after two successive wave elections (defined as two successive gains of 20 seats or more), when the president’s party already gained seats in the second wave election, when the first wave restored their majority.