Earlier this month, while the Republican Party brass was busily celebrating their supposed “revival” following victories in the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, they neglected to see the whole story, which showed a more divided, dysfunctional party than the one Democrats faced in the 2008 election. Democrat Bill Owens’ surprising win in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, a district not controlled by a Democrat since before the Civil War, showed the vulnerability of a party dealing with a serious ideological divide. The race pitted the former GOP establishment against an increasingly vocal far-right-wing movement, which is beginning to look more and more like the face of the Republican Party. Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman usurped the Republican candidate Dede Scozzofaza after receiving endorsements from far-right-wing torchbearers Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. These endorsements carried more weight than did support from former GOP power brokers such as Newt Gingrich. Given the historical precedent working against Democrats in 2010, this widening schism is music to Democratic ears. Polls consistently show that the Republican brand is still damaged, as Republican Party identification is at an all-time low, with some polls showing GOP party identification as low as 20% of the electorate.
Tea-Party Republicans Taking Control of GOP, Fielding Primary Challenges
Barring a minor political miracle, the Democratic Party stands to lose seats in 2010. Historically, the party of the president loses an average of 24 seats in the midterm election of the first term. This will be especially true in 2010, given the size of the Democratic majority and the conservative lean of several districts captured since 2006. However, as the special election in NY-23 shows, even with a natural advantage, the Republicans will alienate voters further if right-wing extremists define the party and pick the candidates. Since the beginning of the Obama presidency, the far-right wing has succeeded in taking control of the Republican Party, as the leadership increasingly falls in line with Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck. While this fringe element has always existed within the GOP, it has gone from skulking along the ideological sidelines to defining the party and presenting challenges to Republican members of Congress and potential candidates. For example, Florida governor Charlie Crist, who was previously considered a lock for the GOP nomination in the upcoming Florida Senate race, is being seriously challenged by extreme conservative Marco Rubio. Rubio has received several high-profile endorsements from influential conservative groups such as the Club for Growth. Even with a Rubio victory in the primary, the Democrats are facing long odds in the Florida Senate race, but internal turmoil in the Republican Party helps our cause. Conservative candidates are entering primaries in at least 12 competitive races, such as the California and Connecticut senate races. If they win or significantly divide the conservative electorate, it could help Democrats immensely. This divide extends to the very top of the GOP, as an agreed upon leader for the party has yet to emerge. A recent Washington Post poll showed that 28% of Republican respondents said that the GOP had no leader, or that they couldn’t identify them.
Despite Turmoil, Republicans Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot
The results in NY-23 were a positive sign for Democrats in terms of 2010, but other signs are more troubling. For example, the recent Gallup generic congressional ballot poll, which shows the Republicans ahead by four points, also shows the drastic change from the last two election cycles, where Democrats consistently enjoyed double-digit advantages. The graph below shows the trend over the last year, taking an average of more than 100 polls. Of course, it is far too early to suggest that these conditions will remain unchanged over the next year, as positive signs in the economy or achievement in the health care debate could shift the public mood.
Another potentially troubling sign comes from the statewide results in Virginia as recent electoral trends were reversed in 2009. Over the last four years, Virginia has been a prime example of the factors that created the Democratic resurgence all over the country. Due in large part to an expanded share of the vote in suburban and exurban areas, the Democrats were able to pick up two Senate seats and three House seats in Virginia since 2006. As counties such as Fairfax grew, the Democratic share of the vote expanded. However, the recent election in Virginia bucked those trends, as the Democratic candidate for governor lost Fairfax County by nearly 4,000 votes. Other recent statewide Democratic candidates won this county handily. For example, President Obama carried Fairfax by more than 100,000 votes.
However, this may be a reflection on the candidate and not an indication of a permanent change, because other statewide down ballot candidates won Fairfax County, albeit by lower margins than in previous cycles. This is particularly troubling because Democrats face three competitive House races in Virginia, which could all potentially flip should these conditions hold.